Recently, the domestic stainless steel market has continued to trade at relatively firm levels, driven by the dual factors of Indonesia’s new nickel ore policy and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Cost-driven support has dominated the market, while sluggish demand recovery has limited upside potential.

Raw material costs have become the core driver of this round of price increases. Since April 15, Indonesia has implemented a new benchmark price (HPM) for nickel ore, with the benchmark price for pyrometallurgical nickel ore rising by 135%. This has directly pushed up the cost of ferronickel smelting, increasing the cost per ton of 304 stainless steel by approximately 209 yuan. Compounded by supply tightness in molybdenum and sulfur caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, the cost of high-end stainless steels such as 316L has risen by an additional 1,100–1,300 yuan per ton.

As of April 24, the main stainless steel futures contract was trading at 15,128 yuan per ton, while the average spot price for 304 cold-rolled steel in Wuxi stood at 14,900 yuan per ton, marking a monthly increase of over 2.7%. The supply-demand landscape reflects a pattern of “strong costs and weak demand.” On the supply side, domestic steel mills’ production schedules have seen a slight month-on-month decline, social inventories have edged down, and traders are strongly committed to maintaining prices. On the demand side, the recovery in domestic end-user industries such as infrastructure and home appliances has been slow; high prices have dampened purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in generally sluggish transactions. In the export market, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have led to soaring freight rates and delayed delivery schedules, putting pressure on order intake.

Industry analysts expect stainless steel prices to remain volatile at elevated levels in the short term, trading within a range of 14,600–15,400 yuan per ton, with 316L performing better than 304 and 201 grades. The medium-term outlook remains contingent on the enforcement of Indonesia’s nickel ore policies, the pace of de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts, and the strength of downstream demand recovery. The tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand will continue to dominate market trends.