In recent years, the global stainless steel market competition has intensified, China as the world's largest stainless steel producer and exporter (accounting for more than 50% of global production), its export products due to price advantage frequently become the target of anti-dumping investigations. The United States, the European Union, India, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions have repeatedly levied anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel products (such as the European Union on China's cold-rolled stainless steel plate tariffs of 20.2%-25.3%), which has had a far-reaching impact on China's stainless steel exporters and industry chain.

Ⅱ. The direct impact of anti-dumping duties

1. Decline in export volume

- Anti-dumping duties directly increase the price of Chinese stainless steel products in the target market, weakening competitiveness. For example, India's 57.39% anti-dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel coil resulted in a decline of about 30% in exports to India in 2022.

- Some markets (such as the EU) further compress the export space through quota restrictions.

2. Pressure on enterprise profits

- In order to maintain market share, some enterprises are forced to reduce prices or bear additional tax burden, profit margins decline. Take a stainless steel enterprise in Jiangsu as an example, its export products to the United States due to the 25% tariff led to net profit shrinkage of 15%-20%.

- Small and medium-sized enterprises are less risk-resistant and may be forced to exit the international market.

3. Trade diversion effect

- Enterprises turn to markets that are not taxed (e.g., the Middle East and Africa), but these markets have limited capacity and different demand structures, leading to increased competition at low prices.

- The risk of transit trade rises, and some enterprises face stricter origin scrutiny for transit through third countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia.

Ⅲ. The chain reaction of the domestic industry

1. Increased pressure on overcapacity

- Blocked exports lead to domestic oversupply, China's stainless steel inventory in 2023 increased by 12% year-on-year, intensifying the price war.

- Industry integration accelerated, the head of the enterprise (such as TISCO, Qingshan Group) through technological upgrading and mergers and acquisitions to enhance concentration, while small factories are facing elimination.

2. Forced industrial upgrading

- Enterprises to increase high-end product research and development (such as special stainless steel, precision steel strip), in order to avoid anti-dumping barriers in the low-end market.

- Green low-carbon transformation has become a new direction, the EU carbon border tax (CBAM) to promote investment in environmentally friendly processes.

3. Collaborative adjustment of the industrial chain

- Upstream nickel, chromium and other raw materials demand structure changes, high value-added products raw materials accounted for an increase.

- Downstream home appliance and automobile industries turn to domestic procurement, partially offsetting export losses.

Ⅳ. The policy and corporate response strategy

1. Government level

- Through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism to complain about unreasonable taxation (such as China v. United States stainless steel pipe anti-dumping case won).

- Expand domestic demand market, promote the “new infrastructure” and other areas of stainless steel applications.